PGA Championship: Predicting the Winner Based on Course Conditions

10 June 2025

There’s something magical about that time of year when the PGA Championship rolls around. The drama builds, the storylines heat up, and fans everywhere start placing bets—both literal and emotional—on who will take home the Wanamaker Trophy. But here's the real kicker: predicting the winner isn't just about picking the top-ranked player or the guy with the hottest streak. Nope. It often comes down to something a little more subtle…

The course conditions.

Yep, the grass, the weather, the rough, the greens — they all play a huge role. And if you can read those signs just right? You might just be able to see the future.

So buckle up, golf nerds and casual fans alike. We’re diving deep into how course conditions could shape the next PGA Champion—and we’ll even make a bold prediction or two along the way.

Why Course Conditions Matter More Than You Think

Let’s break this down. Every PGA Championship is held at a different course, and every course has its own personality. No two layouts are alike. Some are sprawling beasts that favor bombers. Others are tight, technical puzzles demanding precision and creativity. Toss in weather (Mother Nature always wants a say), and you’ve got a game of chess on grass.

Think of it like cooking. You could have the best chef in the world, but give them the wrong ingredients or a faulty stove, and dinner’s ruined. Same deal here—elite golfers can falter if the course doesn’t match their game style.

Key Course Elements That Influence the Outcome

Alright, now that we’re all in agreement that course conditions matter, let’s look at what exactly we mean. It’s more than just “it might rain.” Here are the big three:

1. Grass Type (Yep, Grass Can Make or Break a Round)

Most fans don’t think about grass beyond the backyard, but pros sure do. Different grass types affect how the ball rolls, spins, and reacts. For instance:

- Bentgrass (common in the north) is smooth and fast but penalizes misreads.
- Bermudagrass (popular in the south) is grainy and unpredictable.
- Poa annua (West Coast vibes) gets bumpier late in the day.

A player with good touch on Bermuda might struggle on Bentgrass, and vice versa. It’s basically like switching out the floor mid-dance.

2. Weather (A Golfer’s Best Friend or Worst Nightmare)

Rain softens the course, making it easier to “stick” approach shots but longer off the tee. Wind? That’s a whole other beast—it can expose flaws in swing mechanics and separate ball-strikers from pretenders.

Weather not only affects the course—it also messes with the player's mental game. The poised and patient rise while the frustrated fall.

3. Course Setup (Fairway Width, Rough Length, Green Speed)

The folks at the PGA of America get to decide just how punishing the course will be. Narrow fairways and thick rough? Accuracy becomes king. Lightning-fast greens? Lag putting becomes a survival tool.

These decisions create a specific blueprint for the kind of golfer who’ll thrive. And guess what? We can analyze that.

This Year’s Course: A Closer Look

Where’s the Battle Happening?

The 2024 PGA Championship heads to the hallowed ground of Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky. This course last hosted the PGA in 2014—when Rory McIlroy edged out Phil Mickelson in one of the most dramatic finishes in PGA history.

What’s Valhalla’s Personality?

Valhalla is no pushover. It's long (over 7,500 yards), rewards the big stick, but demands accuracy off the tee. It’s got narrow corridors bordered by gnarly rough, plus greens that are elevated and fast.

Let’s talk turf. Valhalla boasts Bentgrass greens and Zoysia fairways. That zoysia is uber-tight—almost like hitting off a mat. Players who thrive on clean contact and crisp iron play get a major bump here.

Projected Course Conditions for Tournament Week

As of early forecasts, we're looking at:

- Mild temperatures in the mid-70s.
- Wind between 5-15 mph daily.
- Potential for scattered showers on the weekend.

That means a soft start (good scoring early) and maybe a grind-it-out finale if conditions worsen. You’ll want a guy who can go low early and hang on when things get dicey.

What Kind of Golfer Will Win This Year?

Based on all that, we can build a contender’s profile. We’re talking about someone who:

- Drives the ball long and accurately (bonus points for fade bias).
- Excels on Bentgrass greens.
- Is mentally tough under weekend pressure.
- Has experience winning on big stages.

Let’s toss in some course comps too. Success at places like Muirfield Village, Quail Hollow, and TPC Harding Park translate well to Valhalla’s setup.

The Front-Runners: Who Fits the Mold?

Let’s take a look at who fits this blueprint the best:

Rory McIlroy

You knew we’d mention him. Rory won here in 2014 and has looked dialed in with his driver again. He’s comfortable on Bentgrass, thrives in soft conditions, and he knows every nook and cranny of Valhalla like it’s his backyard. If he can keep the putter warm, he’s dangerous.

Scottie Scheffler

If we’re talking about tee-to-green dominance, Scheffler is him. The guy’s been gaining strokes like a machine. His driving accuracy and laser-like irons are a dream fit for the Valhalla layout. The only knock? The flatstick. If he catches a hot week on the greens, watch out.

Brooks Koepka

Three-time PGA Champ. Big game hunter. Koepka lives for majors and thrives on tough setups. If the course turns into a grind? He’s your guy. He bombs it with the best and loves fast greens. It all comes down to health and rhythm.

Xander Schauffele

He’s finally pushing through that “best never to win a major” label. Quietly consistent, great ball-striker, and sneaky long. Plus, he tends to play better on Bentgrass. Don’t be shocked if he’s lurking Sunday afternoon.

Dark Horses and Sleepers

Max Homa

He hasn’t broken through in a major yet, but the game’s there. His swing is as pure as it gets, and he’s brilliant on similar courses. If he can keep the nerves in check, he could make a serious run.

Viktor Hovland

Elite ball-striker, and he’s learning the art of short game. His issues on Bermuda have been glaring—but Bentgrass? Much better. If he brings a complete performance, he’s got a shot.

Bold Prediction: Who Walks Away with the Trophy?

Alright, time to put it all together. Factoring in the course, the weather, the grass, and the recent form…

🎯 Our Predictive Pick: Scottie Scheffler.

Here’s why: He checks every box when it comes to Valhalla’s demands — long, accurate, unshakable under pressure, and trending upward. While the putter is always a question mark, soft greens could level the playing field and make it more about proximity than putting prowess.

If not Scheffler, keep a sharp eye on Rory. A return to the site of one of his greatest triumphs could be the spark he needs to break his major drought.

What This Means for Fans and Bettors

If you’re making picks for your fantasy team or placing a little wager (no judgment here), focus less on names and more on fit. Look for recent form on Bentgrass courses, analyze how they’ve played in similar weather, and don’t ignore the mental factor.

The PGA Championship isn’t just about hitting bombs—it’s about surviving the gauntlet.

Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, golf is unpredictable—that’s what makes it so dang fun. You can crunch stats, analyze swings, and study course history, but there’s always that one guy who catches fire and rides the wave to glory.

Still, understanding the nuances of course conditions gives you a serious edge. Whether you're a die-hard fan or just watching for the vibes, knowing what to look for can turn the tournament into a strategy game of your own.

So when that first tee shot is struck at Valhalla, remember: The trophy won’t just go to the “best golfer.” It’ll go to the one who reads the course like a book—and plays it like a symphony.